What happens when home prices stop rising—but the market still starts moving again? In this episode of The STR Data Lab, Jamie Lane sits down with Mike Simonson, Chief Economist at Compass, to unpack the biggest housing market shift in years—and why it matters deeply for short-term rental investors.

After four years of frozen transaction volume and relentless price growth, 2026 is shaping up to be the beginning of a new cycle. Mike breaks down why home prices are likely to remain flat while incomes gradually catch up—unlocking long-awaited improvements in affordability. But the real story isn’t just pricing—it’s movement. With mortgage lock-in slowly easing and hiring trends poised to play a critical role, we’re entering a phase where transactions begin to rise again, even without dramatic rate cuts.

For STR operators, this shift has major implications. From regional price corrections in high-growth markets like Florida and Austin, to the slowdown in migration-driven demand, the conversation reveals where opportunities are emerging—and where caution is warranted. Whether you’re investing, managing, or simply watching the market, this episode gives you the data-driven lens to understand what’s happening right now—and what comes next.

You don’t want to miss this episode!

Key Takeaways

• Flat prices ≠ weak market Home prices are المتوقع to stay roughly flat in 2026, but that stability—combined with rising incomes—marks the first real improvement in affordability in years.

• Sales are quietly rebounding Even modest growth (3–5%) in home sales signals a meaningful shift after years of suppressed transaction volume.

• The “lock-in effect” is fading—slowly More homeowners now hold mortgages above 6%, meaning fewer are stuck in ultra-low rates. Time—not just rate cuts—is unlocking supply.

• Migration slowdown is hitting STR demand A weak hiring market is driving the “Great Stay,” reducing relocation-driven bookings that once fueled STR growth in Sunbelt markets.

• Regional divergence = opportunity Markets like Austin and Florida are seeing price corrections due to oversupply and slowing inbound migration—potentially improving investment fundamentals for STR buyers.

• Watch rates and hiring—not just prices Weekly demand signals like pending sales and price cuts react quickly to mortgage rate spikes and labor market shifts—making them critical indicators for what’s next.

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Episode 174