In this episode of the STR Data Lab, Jamie Lane, Chief Economist at AirDNA, is joined by Bram Gallagher, Director of Forecasting at AirDNA. The duo discusses several pressing topics within the short-term rental industry and broader economic indicators. They begin by reviewing March performance and early April trends, noting a mixed story influenced heavily by recent tariff announcements. Despite a challenging 2023, 2024 saw positive momentum, particularly in mountain resorts benefiting from good snowfall. However, March presented a slight decline in demand growth and occupancy rates, partly due to a calendar shift with spring break and Easter moving to April. 

Urban markets saw significant new listings, leading to a notable increase in supply, especially in cities like Jersey City and Newark, following New York's short-term rental regulations. Interest rates, inflation, and consumer confidence are discussed in depth. Bram notes a hesitant stance from the Fed to lower interest rates due to inflationary pressures. Employment remains strong, but consumer confidence and business sentiment have declined. 

The discussion also touches on the impact of exchange rates on international travel, with Americans potentially favoring domestic destinations due to a weaker dollar against the Euro. Further, summer travel pacing shows positive trends in traditional vacation rental markets but sluggish demand in urban and suburban areas. Lastly, the episode delves into price evolution, with March showing smaller increases in average daily rates (ADRs) compared to January and February, highlighting affordability concerns amid economic uncertainties. Bram concludes with a look ahead, emphasizing the importance of monitoring layoffs and wage inflation as critical indicators for the economic outlook.

You don’t want to miss this episode!

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jamie_Lane 

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Episode 130